ZHULIAN 10 Jan

4QFY09 Results – within expectations

• Zhulian’s full-year FY09 results came in within our expectations with net profit of RM82.1m, which is close to our projection of RM79.7m.

• Despite a slow macroeconomic environment in FY09, the Group managed to registere a modest 3.9% yoy and 9.9% yoy growth in revenue and net profit respectively. Furthermore, we are also encouraged by its achievement in improving its net profit margin to 26.0% in FY09 vs. 24.6% in FY08.

• We attribute the robust results to successful rollout of new products, growth in distributorship,effective cost management and lower effective tax rate. In FY09, Zhulian introduced a number of new products, which included several gold-plated and rhodium-plated jewellery, the ISO 7 Mixed Fruits and Vegetables Extract Beverages, the Premix Coco Drink, as well as the new sanitary napkin range named WANISA.

• Meanwhile, Zhulian’s balance sheet continues to strengthen further, with NTA/share growing to 93 sen in FY09 from 81 sen in FY08. Similarly, net cash/share rose to 36 sen from 31 sen during the same period. We note that the Group’s net operating cashflow also increased 35% yoy to RM68m in FY09.

• Zhulian declared a fourth interim single-tier dividend of 3 sen, as well as a special single-tier dividend of 2 sen for the quarter under review. This brings total FY09 net dividend to 14 sen, which surpassed our expectation of 12 sen. At current share price, Zhulian offers an attractive net dividend yield of 7.5%.

• Prospects in FY10 remain bright for Zhulian. We expect the uptrend growth in revenue and net profit to prevail. The management has identified a number of growth plans, which amongst others, include expansion of manufacturing and warehousing floor space in Malaysia and Thailand (warehousing only), setup of new distribution centre in Sarawak and rollout of newproducts in FY10. Zhulian’s distributor force is growing steadily too, reaching 480,000 at present compared to 420,000 in early FY09.

• Against this positive backdrop, we raise our FY10 net profit estimate 3% to RM87.0m, which translates into an EPS10 of 25.2 sen. We also increase expected FY10 dividend payout to 14 sen from 12 sen earlier.


Recommendation:-
ZJ Research maintain our Buy call on Zhulian with a slightly higher fair value of RM2.27 (from RM2.21), derived from pegging its EPS10f against a peer average PER of 9x. Our optimism is supported by 1) the Group’s healthy earnings growth and cashflow generation, 2) management’s clear growth strategy, and 3) solid balance sheet. As such, we opine that its current valuation, at 7.4x FY10 PER, remains attractive. Zhulian also offers attractive net dividend yield of 7.5% which is on par with Amway, the industry leader in direct marketing.

Now, I shall write the latest version in here, all in English.

Ok, first introducing Haio. One of the most well known chinese herbs distributor in Malaysia. Recently it has become a hot stocks partly because of the well know CEO Tan Kai Hee who involves in some dispute where you can see his faces appearing in chinese newpapers. Another part is because of Haio's successful organic growth in their MLM business especially in Indonesia, an untapped market during 2008 and the great dividend yield it provides. Recently it has gone under exercise of further splitting of shares coming soon. Zhulian in the other hand is a much much low profile stocks and company. It mainly sell jewelery and some other households products, through MLM. Well, its cash dividend has been quite stable with RM0.03 almost every quarter.

Now, let's have a look at their earning and growth prospectives.
HAIO (‘000)
2007 RM22,113/RM189,346 =12%
2008 RM49,118/RM373,822=13%
2009 RM53,011/RM435,216=12%
Zhulian (‘000)
2007 RM58,927/220,546=27%
2008 RM74,690/303,577=25%
2009 RM82,057/315,275=26%

EPS 2009
HAIO latest EPS=0.22*4=0.88,Market Price RM8.80,p/e=10
2009 EPS=0.63,MKT PRICE RM8.80,P/E=13.96

ZHULIAN 2009 EPS=0.2377,Market price=1.80,p/e=7.5

Div yield
Haio has been paying stably RM0.3-0.4/year dividend, while Zhulian paying consistently RM0.03 every quarter, almost RM0.12-0.14/year.
Well, comparing the div yield, Haio=4.5% Zhulian=7.6%

Zhulian has a lower p/e and better div yield. Currently if you look at growth, Haio provides a better pictures on its growth with almost 100% over last 2 years, while Zhulian due to its low volume, is unlike by many as its sales grow slowly, same as the EPS.
Posted by 山下聖人 at 7:24 PM
Labels: Haio, Zhulian

Not One Trader in 1,000 Knows This Secret

By Tom Dyson

The secret I’m going to share with you today is probably the single most important factor in determining the success of stock market traders. If you can master it, you can make millions in the stock market.

This technique is simple, but it requires months of training and dedication to master. The trouble is, it goes against our basic emotional conditioning. Don’t worry if you don’t get it immediately. Keep practicing…

So what’s the secret?

The amateur thinks winning in the market is about predicting the future. The amateur buys some shares and hopes the market rises. He has no idea what to do if something unexpected happens. He wings it completely and ends up trading with his emotions. There’s nothing more destructive to wealth than emotional trading.

The market is a game of probability. It has nothing to do with predicting the future. When you treat the market as a game of probability, money management becomes your most important weapon. What I mean is, the stocks you buy become far less important than the position size you use and the decisions you make after you pull the trigger.

This is the secret to beating the stock market. Maybe one speculator in 1,000 knows this. Until you realize this, you have hardly any chance of making money in the market. It boils down into three easy rules…

Trading Rule No. 1: Risk a constant amount of capital in each trade… and keep it small.

Most investors put more money into their favorite ideas than they put into their least favorite ideas. They have no system for figuring out bet size.

Skillful traders know they can’t read the future, so they give every bet the same chance. They make thousands of small but profitable trades and accumulate their fortunes slowly but surely. The key is to keep your bets small and constant by putting, say, 2% of your total trading capital in each trade.

Trading Rule No. 2: Cut your losses. You are trading against some of the world’s smartest people, armed with incredible research budgets and advanced supercomputers. They don’t trade as a side job or as a hobby. These people live, eat, and sleep the market.

The market is a hostile place. It’s like a medieval army trying to get into your castle day and night. Your stop losses are the castle gates. A position without a protective stop loss is like an open gate. You’re letting the army pour in and take your gold.

To control your losses, use a stop loss. This way you know exactly how much money you stand to lose if your stock falls, before you’ve even entered the trade. The stop loss applies at all times and can never be overridden.

Trading Rule No. 3: If your trading idea shows a profit, add to your position. If it keeps rising, add more. For example, begin your investment with a purchase of $2,000. Once your stock is up Y%, invest another $2,000. Then, once your stock is up Z%, invest another $2,000, for a total cash investment of $6,000. Decide what Y and Z are before you enter the trade. Write them down so there’s no confusion.

In my Penny Trends trading service, I have a mantra that captures the essence of this secret. We call it “doing more of what’s working and less of what’s not.” This mantra drives every decision we make.

By using these three simple money management techniques… that is, push your profits, cut your losses, and keep your positions small and constant… you can beat the market, too. You won’t win every trade, but in the long run, you’ll generate a positive return in your trading account.

~~DailyWealth~~
http://feeds.feedburner.com/bursa88bursamalaysia

Rubber stock performance 15/01/2010

Rubber stock performance 14/01/2010

IRCB says unaware of reasons for unusual market activity
KUALA LUMPUR: Integrated Rubber Corp Bhd (IRCB), whose shares hit limit-up in early trade on Thursday, Jan 14, has told Bursa Malaysia Securities it was unaware of any reason for the unusual market activity (UMA).

IRCB, in a reply to Bursa Securities, said after having made due enquiry with the directors and major shareholders, they were not aware of any reasons which may have contributed to the UMA.

Its shares rose 30 sen to RM1.87 in early trade, prompting the query.

At the midday break, it was off the early high, with the shares up 18 sen to RM1.74 with 53.69 million shares done.

The Edge FinancialDaily reported that IRCB's single largest shareholder Chip Lam Seng Bhd sold two million shares on Monday, Jan 11 when its share price surged 39.5 sen to close at RM1.34.

A filing with Bursa Malaysia showed it sold the shares in the open market, reducing its total shareholding to 95.6 million shares or 40.37%.

Rubber stock performance 13 Jan 2010

Stock Tips??

SERNKOU
Rumour: The major shareholding change hand might trigger the need for mandatory takeover.

Current price: 0.33

Target price: 0.70

Too bad I bought it at a bit high price (0.38) when the price moving down cheaper & cheaper.

watch out SEACERA !!
now 36 sen.....T.P. 1.00
going 2 place out share at 1.00......BOSS going 2 push up to 1.00
if not, nobody will take up the private placement !!
i bought at 41 sen....going 2 buy more
the price stil cheap....
NTA 1.36, making profit 1.588 million for the last quarter
T.P. 1.00

WINSUN
Speculation basic: Contract worth RM20-30 million from Maanshan Steel Group which was in deferment last year will be re-activated again & more contracts from China will be realised soon.

Current price: 0.08

Target Price: 0.30

I got 0.07 last time, & plan to sell some 0.10. :D
Hope today can rally to 0.10! :mrgreen:
Possible?

MAXTRAL
25 sen should b a good buy....
Maxtral net assets per share 95 sen, latest 1/4 report registered
4.623 million profit, cash at hand 14.6 million....TAIWAN connection
so, 25 sen is a very good bargain price,
grab it fast !!
after profit taking, MAXTRAL will continue its journey towards 50-54 sen.
dont believe ??
better believe it !!

UDSCAP. Bro making loss one wor this company.
Boleh keep?


buy 16-18 sen....dont chase,
loss making but results improving...cash in hand minus overdraft still
got 3.8 million n debt level decreasing.
short term target 20 sen.

ASB
buy around 15-16 sen....their NAPS 90 sen n cash in hand 75 million,
tis stock at current level consider cheap....good 4 long term buy.
T.P. > 20 sen.

Rubber stock performance 12 Jan 2010

Rubber Gloves: Strong start to the year but share prices still have room to run Overweight

Top Glove - Fair value RM13.80 - Outperform

Kossan - Fair value RM10.22 - Outperform

Adventa - Fair value RM4.34 - Outperform

Hartalega - Fair value RM7.36- Market Perform

Sarawak-related stocks in focus

KUALA LUMPUR: Sarawak-based companies came under the radar of investors on Jan 11 following news that foreign direct investment (FDI) from China of up to US$11 billion (RM36.74 billion) will be flowing into the country’s largest state.

Some Sarawak counters ended the day higher compared to their closing prices for 2009 just over a week ago.

HOCK SENG LEE BHD [], which specialises in reclamation and dredging, ended on Jan 11 up 7% at RM1.13 versus RM1.06 on Dec 31, 2009.

DAYANG ENTERPRISE HOLDINGS BHD [] rose 5% to RM1.82 from RM1.73 on Dec 31. The oil and gas services provider’s shares touched a 52-week high of RM1.84 last Wednesday.

Also on the rise is Kuching-based engineering company KKB ENGINEERING BHD [] whose share price jumped 6% within a span of six trading days to close at RM3.20 on Jan 11. Ending last year at RM3.01, KKB had touched its 52-week high of RM3.24 last Tuesday.

Sarawak PLANTATION [] Bhd closed at RM2.20 on Jan 11, up nine sen from Dec 31 while TRC SYNERGY BHD [] ended at RM1.38, up three sen over the same period.

State-controlled CAHYA MATA SARAWAK BHD [] (CMSB) closed 20% higher at RM1.78 on Jan 11 compared with its close of RM1.48 six trading days ago.

While the jump in its stock price could be due to the positive vibes surrounding Sarawak of late, it could also be because of CMSB’s recent corporate development.

Last Friday, CMSB announced that it would be selling its 37.21% stake in UBG BHD [] to PetroSaudi International Ltd for RM465.52 million which CMS had noted could be used for higher-yielding investment opportunities.

Not only are investors excited by the Sarawak play, even heads of research too are singing the Sarawak tune.

“We are quite positive on the Sarawak theme play. Unlike some of the other growth corridors that are dependent on attracting investment in services, Score (Sarawak Corridor of Renewable Energy) is fashioned on the tried-and-tested formula of attracting investments in manufacturing, specifically heavy industries.

“Our stock picks for this are Hock Seng Lee, Naim (Holdings Bhd), KKB and Leader Universal Bhd … they’ll likely be beneficiaries of Score and even from the potential US$11 billion foreign direct investment that is said to flow into the state. CMSB is also a potential beneficiary from all this,” OSK’s head of research Chris Eng told The Edge Financial Daily.

“Looking at Sarawakian boys, they have not gone for big things but have been quietly running their respective businesses and been profitable year after year.

“They are not into big-scale projects… but focus on projects like flood mitigation, roads. They have been quietly doing their jobs and delivering it in the process. They have been generally focused on Sarawak jobs and that itself is quite a large market,” Eng added.

Kenanga’s head of research Yeonzon Yeow also believes things are looking up for Sarawak companies.

“Score is the only real economic corridor where there are natural resources that will be tapped to create value, and that is cheap power. That itself is a huge catalyst for the growth of the state.

“Also, with quite a large part of the state still under-developed, there is a need for the development of ancillary infrastructure to tap the cheap power source and for the development of the Score projects, thereby providing potential contracts for the local companies,” he said.

Meanwhile, Maybank Investment Bank Research said it expected CONSTRUCTION [] awards in Sarawak to be stronger in 2010 with a higher development expenditure by the federal government.

“The 10th state election is due by May 2011; the last state election was on May 20, 2006. This may speed up the award of basic social-infrastructure works for roads, schools and healthcare centres in the state in 2010.

“In addition, PM Datuk Seri Najib Razak had in September 2009 reaffirmed a higher development allocation for Sarawak under the 10MP (10th Malaysia Plan). Allocation for Sarawak rose 18% during the 9MP with the state taking up 7% of the total allocations for the country,” it said in a recent research note.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/157267-sarawak-related-stocks-in-focus.html

Rubber stock performance 11 Jan 2010

CIMB Research ups Latexx Partners (7064.KU) target to MYR5.44 from MYR4.36 based on unchanged 30% discount to rival Top Glove's (7113.KU) target market PE of 16.5x; this, after raising house FY10-11 earnings for Latexx by 23-25% after getting updates on company's expansion plans; keeps Outperform call, which is premised on the potential re-rating catalysts of the company's move towards higher-margin premium products, latest JV agreement produce, market and distribute protein-free natural rubber gloves.
In Latexx, it is teaming up with Amsterdam-based Budev BV to market and distribute protein-free gloves. The JV company would treat natural rubber latex examination and surgical gloves using Budev's TECHNOLOGY [].

The proposed JV would enable Latexx to venture into a new era of technology to treat natural rubber latex examination and surgical gloves with extremely reduced levels of proteins and allergens to non-detectable level to prevent users from having an allergic reaction.

Which Rubber Stock Has Best Value - Part 2

Here are the details to my analysis of the rubber stocks best value: Hope this helps in your stock picking.
Ratio Rv = today opening price/fair price

1. Supermax ( Qtrly eps 12.6 sen, fair value RM5.07***). Rv = RM5.39/fair value = 1.06
2. Top Glove (Qtrly eps 21.0 sen, fair value RM7.90). Rv = RM10.40/fair value = 1.32
3a. Latexx (Qtrly eps 6.3, fair value RM2.52). Rv = RM3.40/fair value = 1.35
3b. Harta (Qtrly eps 12.3, fair value RM4.96). Rv = RM6.70/fair value = 1.35
4. Kossan (Qtrly eps 8.7, fair value RM 3.48). Rv = RM5.93/fair value = 1.70
5. Adventa (Qtrly eps 4 sen, fair value 1.60). Rv = RM3.50/fair value = 2.19

Oooops... I din't grabbed the best valued rubber stocks.. Well then, it's time to add Supermax....
Sorry I didn't include IRCB (loss making?) and Rubberex (industrial/household gloves) in my analysis. Rubberex (latest eps 6.8 sen) may follow the path of Adventa (both were at the initial RM1.80 range prior to making their big moves). Oh btw, Adventa will declare dividend (4 sen.???) soon..

*** Psst...
How I assume my fair value is interestingly simple.
Assume annualised PER (price/earnings) = 10, then quaterly PER (price/quarterly earning) = 40, meaning quaterly PER = 40 sen/ 1 sen.
So I'm willing to pay 40 sen on the price of a stock when it can earn 1 sen per quarter or 4 sen per year. Make sense...?

Take GenM (Resort) as an example
Latest Quaterly eps is 7 sen, so I'm willing to pay 40 x 7 sen = RM2.80 as fair price..
I'll accumulate more of GenM at below RM2.80 for now
Posted by Remnant 613 at 1:13 AM
Labels: Fair price
3 comments:

David Ng said...

Personally I own some rubbers (Supermx & Kossan) and I like the way you analyze them based on "best value". Just sharing why I took Kossan instead.

Yes, I have kossan and my data shows me that latest quater earnings is 9.61. Bad news from Kossan was because of their forex losses and 2 fire incidents. That probably put off a lot of people.

Kosan's forex loss for the last quarter was Rm 11.271 million or about 7 cents per share. Management says this is the last quater for the forex lost.

I then exclude this forex lost from their last quarter earnings... then their earning should be more than 16 cents per share .

CIMB report also indicates that the foreign funds are not at the top level.

Then using back your calculation
0.16 * 4 * 10
$ans = 6.400000
Last trade 5.90
5.90 / 6.40 = 0.92 (even less than Supermx)

The other company that mentioned with forex loss was Adventa with a loss of Rm 2.4 million or 1.6 cents PS. USing the same formula...
(3.720 + 1.6) * 4 * 10 = 212.80
Last trade 3.69
3.690 / 2.1280
$ans = 1.734023

I am for long term and have entered into Kossan. Short term traders will find it difficult to trade Kossan because of low volume.Hopefully it will not dissapoint.
January 8, 2010 3:50 PM
David Ng said...

On second reading, Kossan's Management say 4QFY09 will be their last forex loss. They are in 4QFY09 now.
January 8, 2010 4:23 PM
Remnant 613 said...

It's rather unfortunate that Kossan's quarterly eps suffers from a recent forex loss and fire mishap.
Otherwise, Kossan may have risen to RM8.30 range, medium term (within 2010).

It was prudent of you to add/hold Kossan to your portfolio on the prospect of improving quarterly EPS.
I know we'll be well rewarded coz I'm buying into it too....!
Thamk you very much.
January 9, 2010 8:16 PM
http://remnant888.blogspot.com/2010/01/which-rubber-stock-has-best-value-part.html

Rubber stock performance 08/01/2010

Trading 07 Jan 2009

Hari ini gagal mendapat keuntungan yang sepatutnya kerana exited beli saham yang baru di lihat dan kurang disiplin dalam diri. Plan your Trade and Trade your Plan